Thailand at the AI Crossroads: Preparing for AGI, Global Shifts, and a New Economic Era

As nations pour vast investments into artificial intelligence, we stand at the edge of a profound shift in global power—one where machines may soon drive the pace of progress as much as, or more than, humans. Artificial General Intelligence, or AGI, could enable machines to perform any intellectual task that humans can, while also thinking, reasoning, adapting, and innovating in ways that challenge our current understanding of work, governance, and collaboration. The signs are clear: the era before AGI may be drawing to a close, ushering in a new chapter defined by unprecedented capabilities, accelerating economies, and complex ethical and strategic questions that require urgent, careful management.

In recent times, DeepSeek—a Chinese-developed AI model that competes with leading U.S. systems at a fraction of the cost—has highlighted two pivotal shifts reshaping the AI landscape. First, the cost of building AI is plummeting, making it feasible for a broader set of actors to develop, deploy, and scale advanced systems. Second, the field is witnessing a dramatic erosion of traditional technical barriers that once constrained progress. Taken together, these shifts imply a double-edged dynamic: innovation becomes cheaper and faster, but so does potential misuse, creating an urgent imperative for thoughtful regulation, robust security measures, and strategic national policies.

This evolving landscape carries profound implications for countries like Thailand, which stand between AI superpowers and face rising stakes in a global AI order. Thailand’s own digital transformation initiatives, including the Thailand 4.0 vision, could be overtaken by a more fundamental shift in the way technology restructures economies, societies, and governance. Over a career spanning more than four decades as a Professor and President of the Asian Institute of Technology (AIT), I have watched many technological transitions unfold—from the slide rule to the calculator, from mainframes to portable laptops, and from basic automation to sophisticated AI systems. Yet the speed and scale of today’s AI advances remain unparalleled.

For nations that have long depended on human capital and expertise to propel development—where industries from automotive assembly to tourism rely on skilled labor, and where societies are among the world’s fastest-aging—AI is not merely a trend to be tracked; it is a transformative force that could redefine the very structure of the economy and the social contract. To understand the implications for emerging economies, we must scrutinize the core elements that determine AI’s accessibility, urgency, societal impact, and global stakes. Those elements offer essential lessons not only for Thailand but for every nation navigating the space between the United States and China as they push toward an AI-dominant future.

The dawning AGI era and the signals from DeepSeek

The current AI landscape is characterized by rapid advances that compress decades of progress into a matter of years. Artificial General Intelligence, as a theoretical and, increasingly, practical objective, represents a level of machine intelligence that can perform any intellectual task that a human being can do, with the ability to reason, learn from new domains, and devise novel solutions to problems it has not previously encountered. The possibility that AGI could emerge within the next decade has galvanized policymakers, business leaders, researchers, and citizens, prompting urgent consideration of how to prepare for a future in which machines might operate with autonomy at or beyond human levels.

The excitement around DeepSeek illuminates two crucial dynamics shaping this transition. The first is economic: AI is becoming cheaper to build, deploy, and scale. By reimagining architecture and optimizing computational efficiency, DeepSeek demonstrates that potent AI capabilities can be achieved at significantly lower costs than traditional high-budget models. This cost efficiency lowers barriers to entry, enabling more organizations—ranging from startups to state actors—to participate in AI development, intensifying competition and accelerating the diffusion of powerful AI tools.

The second dynamic is the breakdown of technical barriers that once limited progress. The field is witnessing rapid improvements in model architectures, training methodologies, data utilization, and hardware optimization. As a result, what once required vast centralized resources can now be pursued by a broader array of developers and institutions, including those in emerging economies. This democratization of capability, while beneficial for innovation, also raises questions about governance, security, and ethical usage at scale.

For Thailand, these shifts underscore a crucial reality: AI is no longer a future aspiration but a present and accelerating force. The country’s challenge is to harness the benefits of rapid AI advancement while mitigating the risks that accompany cheaper, more accessible, and more capable technology. The opportunities are immense—ranging from structural shifts in manufacturing to enhanced service delivery in tourism and healthcare—yet so too are the risks, particularly if there is insufficient preparation in education, governance, and workforce adaptation. In this context, the DeepSeek example functions as both a beacon of opportunity and a reminder of the responsibilities that accompany advanced AI deployment.

Implications of cheaper AI and fading barriers

The cost reductions in AI production are not mere economic trivia; they translate into tangible strategic effects. Lower costs expand the set of actors who can meaningfully contribute to AI research and development, increasing competition, collaboration opportunities, and talent mobility across regions. They also invite a broader spectrum of use cases, from national security and critical infrastructure to consumer technologies and industrial automation. When more players—public and private—participate in AI development, it creates a richer ecosystem for innovation but also intensifies the need for resilient governance structures to prevent fragmentation, duplication, and abuse.

Meanwhile, the erosion of technical barriers means that the pace of innovation accelerates, but it also compresses the window for policy and regulatory responses. The speed at which new capabilities emerge makes it imperative for governments to design agile, forward-looking frameworks that can adapt to evolving risks and opportunities. This dynamic is precisely why nations with a strong emphasis on education, ethics, and strategic partnerships—notably in Southeast Asia—must craft comprehensive national AI strategies that align with broader economic and social objectives.

For Thailand, this combination of lower costs and faster development cycles reinforces the urgency of proactive planning. It creates a fertile ground for public-private collaboration, skill-building, and strategic investments in critical sectors that can absorb and amplify AI capabilities, such as advanced manufacturing, logistics, health services, and sustainable tourism. It also heightens the need for robust data governance, privacy protections, and ethical standards to ensure that rapid innovation does not come at the expense of societal values or public trust.

A note on timing and uncertainty

While some experts forecast AGI emerging as early as the 2030s, others call for caution, arguing that breakthroughs may still be incremental, with practical, widely deployed AGI remaining years away. The uncertainty surrounding the timeline does not diminish the urgency of preparation. The trajectory toward AGI, and potentially toward Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI), will react to a confluence of technical breakthroughs, data availability, compute resources, policy choices, and public governance. For a country like Thailand, the prudent approach is to accelerate readiness across education, industry, institutions, and governance, while maintaining flexible plans that can evolve with new information and capabilities.

In this evolving landscape, the question is not simply whether AI will transform society, but how nations shape that transformation to maximize public well-being, minimize risk, and preserve human autonomy and dignity. This requires a deliberate, informed dialogue across sectors and borders, grounded in a clear understanding of AI’s capabilities, limits, and governance needs. Thailand has the opportunity to position itself as a thoughtful, proactive participant in shaping the global AI era—one that emphasizes inclusive development, ethical stewardship, and regional leadership.

AI accessibility, urgency, societal implications, and global stakes: lessons for emerging economies

The AI revolution is characterized by increasing accessibility—the capacity for a broad array of actors to engage with powerful technologies—and escalating urgency as industries, governments, and communities prepare for a future in which intelligent systems can perform many tasks previously reserved for humans. For emerging economies, this convergence creates both a road to rapid development and a risk of being left behind if strategic preparation lags. The following elements articulate why AI accessibility, urgency, societal implications, and global stakes are central to policy debates and strategic planning.

First, AI accessibility is widening. The availability of open-source models, developer tools, cloud-based platforms, and cost-effective hardware lowers barriers to entry, enabling more organizations to trial, customize, and deploy AI solutions. This democratization supports innovation ecosystems, fosters entrepreneurship, and allows smaller firms and regional players to compete more effectively. However, it also intensifies the risk that unethical or insecure applications proliferate if standards, oversight, and capacity-building are not in place. Access must be coupled with strong governance, cybersecurity, data stewardship, and ethical guidelines to ensure that widespread use yields broad-based benefits rather than fragmenting markets or compromising safety.

Second, the urgency to act is driven by tangible economic and social imperatives. AI has the potential to augment productivity, generate new industries, and improve service delivery, which can be transformative for laboratories, universities, small and medium-sized enterprises, and public services. Conversely, delay can exacerbate unemployment and inequality if workers are slow to adjust, if educational systems fail to provide relevant skills, or if governance structures lag behind technology. In many emerging economies, the window to align policy, investment, and capacity-building with AI trajectories is relatively narrow, making timely action essential.

Third, the societal implications of AI are broad and multi-dimensional. AI reshapes the labor market, education, healthcare, finance, security, and daily life. It challenges conventional social contracts by altering expectations around work, income, and opportunity. As AI systems become more capable, questions about accountability, bias, fairness, and transparency become more pressing. Societal structures must adapt to ensure that AI augments human capabilities without entrenching disparities or eroding trust in institutions. This entails rethinking how we design educational pathways, how we distribute the benefits of innovation, and how we deliver public goods in an increasingly automated world.

Fourth, the global stakes are immense. The investments by major powers—prominently the United States and China—in AI research, development, and deployment are accelerating the transition from narrow AI to AGI and possibly ASI. This concentration of capital and influence raises important questions about who controls the most powerful technologies, who benefits from them, and how risks are shared or shouldering across nations. The governance of AI will increasingly be a geopolitical issue, with implications for sovereignty, security, economic resilience, and social welfare. The structural question for emerging economies is how to participate constructively in this new order, protect national interests, and cultivate collaborations that enhance domestic capabilities while contributing to international norms and standards.

For Thailand and countries in similar positions, the decisive takeaway is that AI is not a distant possibility but an immediate strategic concern. It demands a coherent plan that integrates education reform, workforce development, industry partnerships, digital infrastructure, and governance. Without such integrated planning, there is a real risk that benefits accrue to a few, while the many face disruption and uncertainty. With thoughtful, coordinated action, emerging economies can leverage AI as a catalyst for inclusive growth, lifting living standards, expanding opportunity, and strengthening resilience in the face of rapid technological change.

Key policy considerations for emerging economies

• Build AI literacy and foundational skills across the population, ensuring that individuals can participate in an AI-enabled economy, understand data privacy and security, and engage critically with automated systems.
• Align education systems with the needs of an AI-driven economy—upgrading curricula, expanding STEM and digital education, and promoting cross-disciplinary training that combines technical knowledge with ethics, humanities, and social sciences.
• Establish robust data governance and regulatory frameworks that protect privacy, ensure safety, and promote responsible innovation, while enabling data sharing within and across sectors to unlock AI value.
• Foster regional and global partnerships to pool resources, accelerate learning, and create standards that facilitate safe, scalable deployment of AI solutions.
• Invest in public-sector AI applications to improve governance, service delivery, and resilience, while ensuring that innovation remains inclusive and accessible to all segments of society.

These lessons are not only relevant to Thailand but to any developing economy seeking to harness AI for growth while managing risk. A careful balance of openness for innovation and guardrails for safety and fairness can help emerging economies reap the rewards of AI, without losing sight of social cohesion, ethical considerations, and long-term human development.

A legacy perspective from Professor Emeritus Worsak Kanok-Nukulchai

Reflecting on decades of experience, the insights of Professor Emeritus Worsak Kanok-Nukulchai—Fellow of the Royal Society of Thailand and former President of the Asian Institute of Technology (AIT)—provide a grounded, historically informed view of the AI surge. He has witnessed the progression from slide rules to calculators, from mainframe systems to portable computers, and from early automation to the current, more sophisticated realm of AI. Yet he notes that nothing in his long career compares with the speed and breadth of change unfolding today. This acceleration has not only technological implications but social, economic, and political ones as well.

Professor Worsak emphasizes that for nations like Thailand—where industry spans automotive assembly, tourism services, and other labor-intensive sectors—the approach to AI must be strategic, inclusive, and forward-looking. He argues that AI is not simply a trend to be monitored; it is a transformation that will redefine how economies organize work, how education prepares citizens, and how governance structures allocate resources and set standards. The pace of change means that policy responses cannot be reactive; instead, they must anticipate emerging capabilities and design adaptive institutions that can evolve with technology.

In his view, Bangkok and other Thai cities should become laboratories for AI-enabled modernization, where public and private sectors collaborate to test, scale, and learn from real-world deployments. The emphasis should be on building human capital—through lifelong learning and robust vocational training—so that a broad swath of the population can participate in and benefit from AI-driven growth. The goal is not merely to adopt new technologies but to cultivate an ecosystem where innovation is sustainable, inclusive, and aligned with national development objectives.

Professor Worsak’s reflections reinforce the central message of this discourse: AI’s trajectory is not a single technological leap but a continuum that intersects with education, governance, labor markets, and social contracts. As Thailand charts its course toward a more AI-enabled economy, his perspective underscores the importance of deliberate, values-driven planning that prioritizes people, equity, and long-term resilience.

Global stakes, governance, and the path forward

The ongoing investments by major powers into AI research and deployment are steering the world toward an era in which the boundaries of intelligence—whether machine or human—are redrawn. The transition from AGI to Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI)—where machines could surpass human capabilities across all domains—poses both extraordinary opportunities and existential risks. The prospect of ASI raises crucial questions about control, alignment with human values, and the distribution of benefits and harms on a global scale.

One of the most pressing concerns is whether autonomous, self-learning systems can be guided to act in ways that are consistent with human welfare. If AGI or ASI systems develop objectives that diverge from human values, the consequences could be profound. This risk highlights the need for robust governance frameworks that address the alignment problem—ensuring that machine goals remain aligned with societal objectives, even as the systems become more capable and autonomous.

At the same time, the acceleration of AI capabilities has the potential to address some of humanity’s most challenging problems. For example, AI could contribute to climate modeling, accelerate medical breakthroughs, improve disaster response, and optimize supply chains to reduce waste and emissions. The dual-use nature of powerful AI systems means that governance must balance innovation with safeguards, ensuring that benefits are widely shared while reducing exposure to misuse, bias, and vulnerabilities.

Global governance in this space will require a combination of national strategies and international norms. Multilateral cooperation can help establish shared standards for safety, ethics, data governance, accountability, and transparency. It will be essential to foster inclusive dialogue that includes developing countries, civil society, industry, academia, and—most importantly—these nations’ diverse interests and values. The path forward involves creating resilient ecosystems that can adapt to rapid technological change, share best practices, and foster responsible innovation everywhere.

Thailand’s role in this evolving global landscape is not to lag behind but to contribute constructively. The country can position itself as a regional hub for AI-enabled education, research, and industry development, while also participating in international governance conversations that shape norms, rules, and shared approaches to risk management. By doing so, Thailand can help ensure that AI’s benefits are realized broadly, that workers and communities are protected, and that the country remains competitive in a rapidly shifting global economy.

Four priorities for Thailand: urgent, strategic action

To translate the urgency of AI into concrete, durable gains, Thailand should pursue four interlocking priorities that address the core dimensions of AI readiness: literacy, education, collaboration, and governance. Each priority requires a deliberate plan, with measurable objectives, adequate funding, and clear accountability across government, industry, and academia.

1. Build AI literacy across all sectors of society

• Implement nationwide programs to raise AI literacy for the general public, focusing on understanding what AI can—and cannot—do, how to interpret AI-generated results, and how to recognize bias and manipulation.
• Develop targeted training for government officials, civil servants, and public sector workers to enable better design, procurement, and oversight of AI-enabled services.
• Promote responsible AI usage in businesses of all sizes, from startups to large enterprises, with practical curricula that cover data ethics, risk assessment, and responsible deployment.
• Use public awareness campaigns to explain AI concepts, address misconceptions, and cultivate trust in AI solutions that are designed to augment human capabilities rather than replace them.

2. Transform the education system to prepare for an AI-enabled economy

• Overhaul K-12 curricula to integrate data literacy, critical thinking, problem-solving, and collaboration with AI tools, ensuring students gain practical experience with AI-driven projects.
• Expand STEM and computer science education while integrating ethics, social science perspectives, and humanities to foster well-rounded, responsible innovators.
• Strengthen vocational and technical education, aligning programs with industry needs in manufacturing, logistics, healthcare, tourism, and agricultural processing where AI can drive productivity gains.
• Promote lifelong learning and upskilling pathways that allow workers to adapt as technology evolves, with government-supported retraining programs and incentives for continuous education.

3. Strengthen regional and global partnerships

• Build regional AI ecosystems that connect Thai universities, research centers, and industry players to accelerate learning, share best practices, and co-develop AI solutions tailored to Southeast Asian contexts.
• Establish international collaborations to access advanced AI tools, research datasets, and joint funding for ambitious projects that address shared challenges such as climate resilience, public health, and infrastructure development.
• Create public-private partnerships that align national priorities with industry capabilities, ensuring that private sector investments in AI complement public investments in education, infrastructure, and safety.

4. Establish robust governance frameworks for innovation with safety and ethics

• Develop a comprehensive AI governance framework that covers safety standards, risk management, data governance, privacy protections, and ethical guidelines to prevent bias and discrimination.
• Create independent oversight bodies with clear mandates to monitor AI deployments in critical sectors such as healthcare, finance, and public administration, ensuring accountability and transparency.
• Promote responsible innovation by establishing regulatory sandboxes that allow experimentation with AI in controlled environments, enabling learning while safeguarding public interest.
• Ensure that governance structures can adapt to evolving technologies by adopting flexible, performance-based regulations that can respond to new capabilities without stifling innovation.

These four priorities are not discrete; they are interconnected and mutually reinforcing. Advancing AI literacy supports education reform, which in turn strengthens collaboration with research and industry. That collaboration, guided by robust governance, creates an environment in which AI innovation can flourish responsibly and inclusively. Thailand’s ability to implement this integrated approach will determine its trajectory in the emerging AI economy, with implications for employment, productivity, social equity, and overall competitiveness on the global stage.

The path ahead: labor, education, and research in an AI-driven world

The advent of AI, and the potential arrival of AGI and eventually ASI, will reshape the labor market in deep and enduring ways. Some tasks that today require human labor may be automated, while new roles that leverage AI capabilities will emerge. The net effect on employment will depend on policy choices, investment in education and training, and the speed with which workers can transition to new forms of work. The potential for widespread unemployment exists if workers are unprepared or if the transition is poorly managed, but with proactive planning, AI can create opportunities for more productive and meaningful work.

Education will be at the center of this transition. The curriculum must evolve to prepare students for a world in which collaboration with AI is commonplace. Students will need skills that enable them to design, implement, evaluate, and govern AI systems. This means a strong emphasis on data literacy, computational thinking, problem-solving, and ethical reasoning. Universities and research institutions will play a pivotal role in advancing AI research, translating discoveries into practical applications, and training the workforce of tomorrow. Industry partnerships will be essential to ensure that research is aligned with market needs and that the deployment of AI technologies contributes to regional economic development.

In research, the emphasis should be on applied AI that addresses local and regional priorities—healthcare access, resilient infrastructure, agricultural modernization, clean-energy systems, and climate adaptation. Encouraging multidisciplinary collaboration will be crucial to ensure that AI solutions are technically robust, ethically sound, and socially beneficial. National research agendas should incentivize open collaboration across borders, while maintaining the safeguards necessary to protect data privacy and security.

From a governance perspective, AI adoption must be accompanied by transparent accountability, clear standards, and citizen-centric policies. Public institutions should adopt AI responsibly, with strong evaluation metrics that monitor outcomes, equity, and public trust. This involves developing performance benchmarks, auditing AI systems for fairness and safety, and maintaining an ongoing dialogue with the public to address concerns and refine approaches.

The broader societal impact of AI includes shifts in education, health, governance, and social welfare. As intelligent systems become more capable, the challenge is to ensure that innovation serves the public good and reinforces social cohesion rather than widening disparities. This requires a balanced approach that supports workers through retraining, expands access to high-quality AI-enabled services, and constructs social safety nets that reflect the realities of an automated economy. By embedding AI in ways that complement and uplift human capabilities, Thailand can help ensure broad-based prosperity in an era of rapid technological change.

Conclusion

The arrival of AGI and the rapid acceleration toward ASI represent defining moments for global development, governance, and the distribution of power. The DeepSeek breakthrough, with its demonstration of cheaper AI and reduced technical barriers, underscores both the opportunities and risks that come with a new era of machine intelligence. For Thailand, the stakes are high: the country stands at a crossroads where strategic decisions about AI literacy, education reform, regional collaboration, and governance can shape its future trajectory in a world where AI reshapes work, knowledge, and power.

Thailand’s response must be deliberate, integrated, and forward-looking. Four priorities—broad-based AI literacy, transformative education, robust regional and global partnerships, and resilient governance—provide a practical blueprint for turning AI potential into inclusive, sustainable growth. This strategy should be complemented by a balanced emphasis on workforce transition, research-driven innovation, and ethical standards that safeguard privacy, fairness, and human dignity.

Ultimately, the AI revolution is no longer a distant prospect but an unfolding reality that will affect every dimension of life—from the factory floor to the classroom, from the boardroom to the public square. The choices we make today will determine whether AI serves as a beacon of prosperity, resilience, and opportunity, or as a source of risk and division. By embracing proactive, comprehensive planning that places people at the center, Thailand can pioneer a thoughtful, equitable path through the coming AI era—one that harnesses the transformative power of AI to raise living standards, strengthen institutions, and build a more inclusive, secure, and prosperous future for all.