Biden’s exit sparks record-breaking daily volume of $28 million on Polymarket amidst uncharted election territory.
Market Mania: Biden Declines to Run for Second Term
It’s market mania as President Joe Biden declines to run for a second term. This unexpected decision has sent shockwaves through the prediction markets, with bettors racing to take positions on the outcome of the election.
Unprecedented Decision
Joe Biden’s decision not to seek re-election isn’t completely unprecedented. U.S. presidents from James Polk to Lyndon B. Johnson also declined to serve another term for one reason or another. However, what is unique is how late Biden decided to throw in the towel, only a month before the Democratic National Convention (where the party officially decides who its presidential candidate is).
Election-Related Contracts Surge on Polymarket
The decision fueled a surge in bets on election-related contracts on the Polymarket prediction market, pushing volume to levels never seen in the platform’s history. According to a dashboard powered by Dune Analytics, daily volume on the platform pushed past a record $28 million as bettors raced to take a position on a presidential race that’s unlike any other in recent history.
Record-Breaking Volume
In comparison, a month ago, the platform was doing $4 million to $5 million in average daily volume in the aftermath of the debate between Biden and Donald Trump, which is when calls for Biden to step down grew louder. The number of daily active accounts, or wallets, has also more than doubled in the last month, up to nearly 6,000 from roughly 3,000 a month ago.
Meme Coin Cat Tops $1 Billion
In other news, a Polymarket bet on market capitalizations for cat-themed tokens resolved late on Sunday, with the Solana-based pop cat (POPCAT) winning the race. The contract asked the burning question: Which cat-themed meme coin would be the first to hit a $1 billion market value?
Drama and Controversy
The resolution drew some drama, however, after a single $630,000 buy of the token apparently caused a spike that helped push it over the $1 billion market cap threshold – with some arguing it was an act of market manipulation. "Okay so this is interesting because that’s clearly market manipulation, but technically it did cross $1 billion on 1 website," wrote Polymarket user @The_Guru55.
CrowdStrike Windows Snafu: Market Thought It Would Be Easy Fix
A faulty patch for security software CrowdStrike pushed out on Friday sparked chaos, as it bricked Windows computers around the world, first in Europe and Asia during their business days, then the United States, as the country woke up. A Polymarket market was fairly certain this wouldn’t be a huge deal and a fix would happen by Friday night, putting the odds at 89%. However, the market was wrong.
Chaos and Consequences
The problems compounded, with over 2,500 flights canceled and 8,000 delayed, with Delta Airlines still rebooking passengers as of Monday. "The scenario of any [anti-virus] software pushing an update that behaves like this has been a ‘worst nightmare’ for two decades," Steven Sinofsky, the former president of Microsoft’s Windows division, posted on X.
Polymarket Favors Harris for Democratic Presidential Nominee
Right now, the number to beat is $744 million, which was how much was bet on Betfair, the U.K.’s largest betting platform, for the 2020 election. But it’s only July; there are still 3 1/2 months until the election. The question is, will Polymarket hit $1 billion?
Conclusion
This week in prediction markets has been marked by market mania, with bettors racing to take positions on the outcome of the election and a meme coin cat topping $1 billion. However, not all predictions have come to fruition, as the CrowdStrike Windows snafu proved to be a more complex issue than initially thought. Only time will tell if Polymarket will hit $1 billion in volume.
Additional Resources
- Read more: With Biden Out, Polymarket Favors Harris for Democratic Presidential Nominee
- Polymarket dashboard powered by Dune Analytics
Disclaimer
The information provided is for educational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Prediction markets can be unpredictable and subject to various risks, including but not limited to market volatility, liquidity issues, and unexpected events. It’s essential to conduct thorough research and consult with financial experts before making any investment decisions.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What is Polymarket?
A: Polymarket is a prediction market platform that allows users to bet on the outcome of various events, including elections, sports games, and more.
Q: How do I get started with Polymarket?
A: To get started with Polymarket, you’ll need to create an account and fund it with a compatible cryptocurrency. Once you have an account, you can browse the available markets and place bets accordingly.
Q: What are the risks associated with prediction markets?
A: Prediction markets can be unpredictable and subject to various risks, including market volatility, liquidity issues, and unexpected events. It’s essential to conduct thorough research and consult with financial experts before making any investment decisions.
Q: Can I use Polymarket for entertainment purposes only?
A: Yes, you can use Polymarket for entertainment purposes only. However, keep in mind that prediction markets involve risks and uncertainties, so it’s essential to be aware of the potential consequences before participating.
